Multiple explosions rocked Tehran today, according to Iranian media. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 now sit at 14% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
The Tehran blasts are the latest escalation in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, marked by US-Israeli joint airstrikes and Iran’s retaliatory measures. Despite a 7-day decline from 20%, today’s rise reflects increased tensions and potential destabilization in Iran’s capital. This volatility suggests traders are revisiting the probability of regime change amidst continuous military pressure and urban strikes.
Despite the modest 2-point rise, the market remains relatively thick, with $195,733 required to shift the odds by 5 percentage points. This indicates a fair level of conviction from traders about the current pricing. The largest single move in the past day was a 1-point spike at 7:21 PM, suggesting measured, rather than frantic, shifts in sentiment.
The explosions underscore the precariousness of the Iranian regime’s hold on power after the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. While the probability of regime change remains low, the ongoing military and civil unrest could alter that calculus. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a roughly 7x return. For that bet to be attractive, you’d need to believe the regime’s grip will weaken significantly in the next 88 days.
Keep an eye on any significant IRGC fractures, unexpected Assembly of Experts convening, or absence of Mojtaba Khamenei from public view. These signals could indicate regime instability and move the market further.
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